My Case For Cash At 50% of Assets

No reason to believe in America 365 days out of the year. Actually, tapping into my margin buying power early on when I had little to lose, made me rich. Later on, I wore out my worry beads.

Think of Black Monday or Paul Volcker’s pushing interest rates (into the teens). Recall the Cuban Missile Crisis while sticking fully invested in the Grande Marché. How can you believe in your country while its ticker tape chatters 5 hours late, on the downside?

Nothing is forever. Buffett just banged out mucho Apple and took some profits in his Bank of America holding. Lest we forget his BAC position loaded with tons of warrants was prompted by BAC’s management. I remember buying their preferred stock ticking at $5, far below par value of $25. 

Stupidity of banks in backing mortgages with phantom asset coverage created the bank meltdown decades ago. Minus FRB intervention, the country woulda floated out to sea. 

American International Group kept gouging clients for years on home mortgage insurance policies. Management guaranteed such wobbly paper for a quarter point or so premium. 

I’m considering self-insuring my home and our art collection. But,Palm Beach is a prospectively dangerous venue, particularly if you live on the waterfront. Decades ago, I was there on the Honolulu beach front, which was flooded. Many insurance houses then stood undercapitalized, and forced into bankruptcy.

Remember: The FRB’s helping hand is for banks and corporate casualties with generic names like AIG. Such get saved from their stupidity. But, individual players in trouble get margin calls, not capital infusions. 

In the bank meltdown of 2008-’09, I bought a bunch of brokerage houses trading in single digits. Actually, the regulators allowed Lehman Brothers to succumb. What saved me was diversification. I owned a dozen ragamuffins and most came back. 

Lehman was heavy in high rise real estate for which no market then existed. Today, commercial real estate gets no respect. Many office properties show sizable vacancies and could succomb. 

Say the same about our big capitalization equities. They ain’t got no price quality. Best I can make out is the Standard & Poor’s 500 sells around 20 times forward 12 months earnings prospects. Dangerous ground.

Financial market history suggests a price-earnings multiplier of 20 puts you in peak ground which never lasts long enough. The cost of an untimely market entry easily reaches 25%. You might remain underwater over a decade. 

Note valuation for the S&P 500 runs all over the lot. In the heady times around 2000, the S&P 500 soared to 25 times earnings. But valuation spent plenty of time below 15 times earnings which for me is fair value. The bank crisis in 2008 -’09 drove valuation down to 10 times earnings. Thinking everything's right in America can take you up into the rarified summit of 25 times earnings. Such never lasts for long. Recessions, inflation, wars do intervene. 

The market’s feverish time is captured in the graph of the NASDAQ 100 Stock Index. Note the craziness back in 2000 when it spiked above 4,000. Then, on bad numbers, broke down below par during the bank meltdown of 2009. 

Currently,  the S&P 500 sells around 20 times earnings, a multiplier that’s never been sustainable. I’m comfortable at 15 times earnings for the Big Board, a scary below now trading around 20 times earnings. 

I’m not smart enough to call for a recession right around the corner. Odds look like even money, so I’ll stick 50% invested.