My Take On Buffett’s 13F Filing

Berkshire Hathaway’s yearend quarterly report was truly simplistic. This is a $267 billion asset base with low turnover. You rarely see buildups in new or established positions. Occidental Petroleum (which I’ve snubbed) is in the buildup stage at approximately 5% of assets yearend,  but obviously is going higher. Top 3 positions Apple, American Express and Bank of America comprise over 56% of assets. But, B of A is in a compression stage. I agree, there are more exciting banks to own like Morgan Stanley, even Citigroup. 

What you don’t see here is any interest in industrials like U.S. Steel, Du Pont, General Electric. Starched white collars are out and T-shirts are in. Two oils are in, namely OXY and CVX (Chevron). Such weighted positions amount to over half of portfolio assets. 

If I didn’t know this was Buffett’s portfolio, I’d probably pronounce it pretty crazily put together. Vulnerable to upsets in energy and financials, a 36% weighting. Who am I to talk? I banged out American Express 50 years ago. 

I like to scrutinize family portfolios because after all it's their money on the line. Duquesne Family Management at $3.5 billion in market value, is not so readily understood by me. Am I yesterday’s news? Maybe half its top 10 positions are recognizable by yours truly,  Amazon, United Airlines, Teva, Phillip Morris.  

What are Natera, Woodward, Coupang, Mercadolibre and Skechers? I dunno. Amazon is the sole property we own mutually. Nearly 86% of this portfolio turned over fourth quarter. What’s going on? I’m too old to take on a serious interest. Call ‘em inscrutable,  but their equity market valuation rose $700 million on a $3.5 billion base at yearend. 

I turned to Carl Icahn’s asset base which is filled with energy specs. They are costing him pesetas. Carl’s the only player I see in airlines and secondary oil and gas properties. So far, it's a costly fling.  The market’s saying Carl’s too early in oil and is overspeculating. This isn’t a T. Rowe Price growth portfolio that you can hold forever before you gift it to your children. 

Did you know that Millennium Management is a $115 trillion operation which practically turned over its entire portfolio during the fourth quarter? Asset value, fourth quarter, rose $676 million.  Not exactly loose change for a broadly based portfolio. Be aware, there was nearly a complete portfolio turnover for this broadly based asset list. I finally discovered Tesla, their 11th largest position. Why not just own the NASDAQ 100 Index instead of trying to figure out Tesla?

Finally, I found a trillion dollar asset player Paulson & Co, that is allergic to high-tech. Here is a largely healthcare operator with major positions in companies I know little about. Paulson’s turnover ratio is as low as I’ve seen, anywhere, a static ratio of 85 percent. Their holdings are foreign to me. Madrigal Pharmacy and Perpetua Resource for example, half their asset base. This is as far away from tech as you can get. Throw in some gold properties, too. Low turnover goes with their positive asset performance. 

Soros Fund Management, sitting with $5 trillion in assets had a good quarter, up over $400 million. High turnover here. I remember George as a fearless trader over 50 years ago who did the work on new properties. His portfolio is very 

diversified, the accent on growth stocks like Alphabet and Salesforce. Big winners here like Salesforce, Alphabet and Astrazeneca. 

What’s so strange for me is the names in Berkshire’s asset list are all recognizable while in Paulson’s trillion dollar mix I hardly recognize any of its holdings. What is Seabridge Gold and International Tower Hill? I can’t find the portfolio theme in Pershing Square’s fund of $12.6 trillion, either. As stock pickers, their fourth quarter was in the red. 

Tiger Global Management, a huge $26 trillion fund seems welded to technology with huge positions in Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, Nvidia and Taiwan Semiconductor. Again, I’d make my life simpler and play the NASDAQ 100 Index.  

Duquesne Family Office at $3.5 trillion caught my eye. Showed a good quarter and high turnover. Hardly anyone is playing airlines, but I see 2.8% in United Airlines.  Run by Druckenmiller here, the 15% position in Natera is a  big winner that acts well. 

Microsoft finally shows up as a major position in the $6 trillion Appaloosa fund. I find Alibaba too difficult to figure out. Here they’ve got it at a 15% position. Plenty of Amazon, too. They just had a tough quarter in prime growthies. I’d prefer the NASDAQ 100 list.

Coatue is huge, near $30 trillion.  Turned in a good fourth quarter, too. A bunch of high tech houses here did the trick. Microsoft got them some money.  Amazon and Taiwan Semiconductor big winners. This is a $30 trillion fund geared for a bull market in tech and other jumping jacks like Tesla. 

All-in-all,  there seems to be dozens of multi-billion dollar asset based funds, unafraid of asset concentration in tech where a couple of dozen properties reside. The issue for investors to answer is whether they fear solving investment problems with NASDAQ 100, or a comparable growth index. Cost of investing does mount up. One percent seems like a minor outlay. How many annual reports and proxy statements do you care to endure? 

Buffett, can marry a couple of dozen stocks over 20 to 50 years. To me, oversimplification solved his problem, not overtrading and diversification.