The Sun Comes Up Like A Red Rubber Ball

I know how to track this rock song which dates itself, but say at least 60 years. I remember guitars and banjos strumming away as the lyrics belted out pure optimism. It's like the sun rising in the sky like a red rubber, bouncing ball. Sundays, visiting Washington Square Park, you'd hear a dozen groups reaching for a place in the sun with our rapt attention loyal for at least 10 minutes.

The title of this piece, is a celebration of singing about your belief in yourself and your country. No longer a Depression baby, but a minstrel of optimism. So the root

issue is does it pay to be optimistic as a money manager? Can you find the next Xerox, Polaroid, even IBM? Are they just trades in your book or something more encompassing. For a long cycle of years before you need to kick them out of your portfolio for a better story.

In short, can you document a stock that takes you to the moon and back home laden with riches. You've just seen it with Amazon.

Where are the generational stories that don't flame out after a year or two? In short, is the market easily playable when there is still plenty residual bullishness attached to most growth stocks?

On the table is the question of whether the market is playable, already selling near 20 times perceived earnings during the next 12 months? History can be a

cruel reminder. When I go back to the market's course in the early sixties, you find some harsh reminders of the sinking spells that hit stocks.

Deflationary pricing, particularly in the late sixties early seventies hit the stock market. It succumbed along with gold. Equity prices declined in the early seventies. It was a cruel decade for stocks through the recession of 1973-'74.

By writing mortgages for every property under the sun, banks created the harsh recession of 1973 - '74. They practically destroyed themselves and needed Federal

assistance in the form of Treasury and Fed Reserve Board capital infusions.

Today, minus a strong feel that artificial intelligence demand can carry the country into a new cycle of growth, it's hard to stay bullish. Initially, my attraction for

Amazon was not book merchandising, but primacy as a purveyor of Al product. I have no way of modeling Al as Amazon's growth engine, but a feeling to hang in and see.

Such company is so far from say modeling General Motors. There, you just extrapolate its 10-day selling momentum for new cars into an operating margin

projection and hope you're buying in at 10 times projected earnings.

Not for me. Past week, Amazon had a 22 point up day, not GM. I don't own GM . Too tough to put numbers on it. Amazon now is a major position, but I'm unable to build a model and feel comfortable with it.

My eyes began to roam. As an initial play, I won't put more than 5% in a viable property. The market today is telling us few properties are moon bound and the penalty for being late can cost you plenty. Say up to 20%

practically overnight.

We used to say decades ago if trading was easy they'd have girls doing it! Of course, you can no longer say something so outrageous. You need half a dozen viable properties to make your portfolio sing.

Soo, Amazon now is a major new face for me. The artificial intelligence has transformed from polite growth into an open-ended pit of contention.

Its jumping Jack market action daily, reflects how investors seek to model this business. Amazon, an early leader, has maintained its primacy as a stock.

Consider, I own a bunch of powerful franchises embracing Apple, Microsoft, Amazon even Goldman Sachs. They do bounce up and down daily, sometimes

5% or more. You could say I live by the sword but could die by the sword. Nobody promised me a rose garden.

"And I Think It's Gonna' Be Alright

Yeah, The Worst Is Over Now

The Mornin' Sun is Shinin'

Like A Red Rubber Ball"

Paul Simon